abstract
-
Wheat plays a major role in the economy of Australia. The increase in temperature, environmental demand and higher climate variability are consistent features of climate change, contributing to increased exposure to failure, yield and quality losses for wheat crops across the country. Knowing what the most significant changes have been and at when during the cycle they have occurred will give us a decision making framework for breeding, management and setting research goals. We used gridded soil and weather information across the country, from 1957 to 2017, to quantify trends in temperature and weather variables related to environmental demand, e.g. VPD, and growth, such as photosynthetically active radiation and the photo-thermal quotient. Changes in the date of last frost (<0°C) were contrasting among regions, with a significant number of locations showing a delay (up to 1.3 days year-1) or earlier last frost (up to 1 day year-1) and large areas without significant changes over the time series. By contrast, the occurrence of first heat (>32°C) has advanced significantly and consistently across the cropping belt by up 0.65 day year-1, impacting on the length of the safe window for flowering. We also focused on analysing changes at different stages of the crop, such as tillering, stem elongation, flowering and grain filling using a range of sowing dates and cultivar maturity types, with phenology simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM version 7.7; Holzworth et al., 2014). As an example, during grain filling, a midmaturity cultivar sown at recommended dates is currently experiencing significantly more days with maximum temperatures exceeding 32 °C. This analysis framework can be used in decision making and a similar approach could be extended to inform other crops.