The winter wheat yield in North China Plain (NCP) increased faster than those of other regions in China. The crop yield was mainly influenced by the environment, genotype, and agronomic management. A quantitative understanding of the underlying reasons for such rapid growth is essential for decision-makers to optimize and adjust strategies effectively and improve wheat production sustainably. In this study, the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function were used to untangle and quantify the contributions of climate, genotype, fertilizer, and irrigation to winter wheat yield improvement in NCP during the period from 1993 to 2013. For the past yield trajectory from 1993 to 2013, the C-D production function showed that the four drivers have contributed to the winter wheat yield improvements by 47.7% (genotype), 33.7% (fertilizer), 24.4% (irrigation) and -5.9% (climate). The APSIM-Wheat model demonstrated a consistent result with slightly different values by 40.4% (genotype), 33.8% (fertilizer), 31.8% (irrigation) and -6.0% (climate). The trend for the contribution of cultivar renewal to yield improvement demonstrated a steady increase over the period from 1993 to 2013 according to both approaches. However, a contrasting trend for the contribution of fertilizer and irrigation to yield improvement was found, with an increasing trend according to the APSIM-Wheat model and a declining trend according to the C-D model. The inconsistency in the trend may result from the un-transformable factors between the model and the actual farm condition, such as the irrigation efficiency. We also found that the winter wheat yield and yield stability may further be improved by 35.3% and 38.1%, respectively if optimized water-fertilization managements were implemented in NCP. Our findings suggest that the effects of cultivar renewal outweigh the advances in fertilizer and irrigation in NCP for the past two decades based on the integrated results of modeling and statistical approaches. Optimized water-fertilization management is still needed to further improve the winter wheat yield and yield stability in NCP.