India’s wheat revolution: path to global leadership by 2047 Abstract uri icon

abstract

  • * sendhil.eco@pondiuni.ac.in

    **pouchepparadjou@gmail.com

    India is on the brink of economic powerhouse in global wheat production, poised to reach the top position by the year 2047, commemorating the 100th year of independence. A global leader's top priority is to ensure secured food and nutrition for the ever-growing population, and this has to be achieved amidst several production challenges at the forefront, including climate change. Estimates foresee a 60% increase from the existing yield levels to attain this monumental feat.

    In this context, an attempt has been made to project the growth trajectory of wheat production in India (second largest wheat producer) and compare it with China (largest wheat producer), sourcing the data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Analysis of growth-instability in wheat production (Business-As-Usual scenario) for the period between 1961 and 2024 indicates a positive growth for both India (3.71% per annum) and China (3.12% per annum) with an instability index value estimated at 6.76 and 12.81, respectively.

    A similar kind of trend has been noticed when the production values are normalized by considering three-year moving average. This analysis emphasized that India is the most reliable and stable wheat producer. However, to attain the set target and feed the burgeoning population by 2047, a visionary and multifaceted approach is needed in research and development, encompassing technological innovations and interventions, sustainable wheat farming practices, pluralistic extension supported with policy reforms.

    To identify the comparative advantage in wheat production and for strategic planning, a SWOC (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Challenges) analysis has been carried out. In conclusion, India’s revolution in wheat for economic supremacy embodies a mission-mode framework that integrates research-extension-development-policies to serve as a path for global leadership by 2047.

publication date

  • September 2024