AbstractWheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
Chilean Technical and Scientific Research Council (CONICYT) FONDECYT Project
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP)
Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of Czech Republic SustES
National Natural Science Foundation of Chinahttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
Crop Model Ensemble ; Global Food Security Supplementary Material For This Article Is Available Online ; Radiation Use Efficiency ; Wheat Potential Yield ; Yield Increase
Crop Population
Environmental sciences
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Food Demand
GE1-350
General Environmental Science
Grain Number
Letter ; yield increase ; radiation use efficiency ; wheat potential yield ; crop model ensemble ; global food security
Photosynthesis
Physics
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Q
QC1-999
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Science
Solar-Radiation
Spring Wheat
TD1-1066
WIMEK
Water Systems and Global Change
[SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology
crop model ensemble
crop model ensemble; global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; yield increase
ddc:
global food security
global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online